TATA CHEMICALS
| BSE ticker code |
500770 |
| NSE ticker code |
TATACHEM |
| Major activity |
Chemicals |
| Managing Director |
N. Chandrasekharan |
| Equity capital |
Rs. 254.82 crore; FV Rs. 10 |
| 52 week high/low |
Rs. 793 / Rs. 197 |
| CMP |
Rs. 748.10 |
| Market Capitalisation |
Rs. 19058.32 crore |
| Recommendation |
Buy at declines |
New biz on back of cash cows
Tata Chemicals, a prestigious member of the
Tata group, is an eight- decade-old commodity player
which is now engaged in an exercise to reinvent itself
as a speciality and consumer products company. At
present, the company has a diversified portfolio of businesses which include soda ash
and sodium bicarbonate fertilisers (which it is exiting
from), agricultural inputs (though
subsidiary Rallis India), consumer
products such as branded iodised
salt, pulses and spices, and a
fledging speciality products business in materials like highly dispersible silica
(HDS) and nano
material as well as nutritional
products like polyols. It has sizeable financial investments and
can liquidate as per its requirements. Prospects for the company are extraordinary
once it completes its reinventing exercise.
Consider:
-
The company is an undisputed leader in the global market for soda ash and
sodium bicarbonate. These
are literally cash cows and are steadily growing at a rate
of around 4 per cent every year. These cash cows are being
successfully used to build growth businesses such as consumer and speciality
products.
-
In fact, the company is rolling in liquidity, generating massive cash of around
Rs 40 billion via divestment
of the regulated fertilizer business and sale of investments,
coupled with steady accruals from the soda ash business.
This would enable the company to move in the direction
of a debt-free status very soon.
-
Experts calculate that as the company scales up
its growth businesses and deleverages its balance sheet,
its consolidated ROCE will improve substantially, in turn
driving a stock re-rating.
-
Divestment of the fertilizer business and sale of
Tata Global Beverages shares would result in cumulative
gross cash inflows of Rs 40 billion. Internal accruals would
add further to cash flows.
-
The company is also
focusing on working capital which
has brought down the requirement
by Rs 21 billion in just two years.
Strong cash flows have allowed the
company to reduce its debt and also
enable the management to invest in
manufacturing facilities for new materials like HDS and nano material,
and nutritional solutions.
-
Salt is growing as a
leading money spinner for the company. The estimated annual consumption of salt
in the country is around 6 million tonnes and demand for edible salt is
growing at a rate of 1.5 per cent.
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)
|
Year
|
Net Sales
|
Net Profit
|
EPS (Rs.)
|
Div (%)
|
BV (%)
|
RONW (%)
|
|
2018-19
|
21708.17
|
4676.61
|
18.2
|
50.00
|
259.27
|
7.01
|
|
2019-20
|
25206.2
|
1627.22
|
5.8
|
0.00
|
301.05
|
1.57
|
|
2020-21(E)
|
28309.81
|
3701.10
|
13.1
|
50.00
|
313.17
|
3.21
|
|
2021-22(E)
|
33191.05
|
7268.19
|
25.8
|
55.00
|
337.72
|
6.98
|
One-stop shop for cables
| BSE ticker code |
517569 |
| NSE ticker code |
KEI |
| Major activity |
Insulated wire and cables |
| Chairman |
Anil Gupta |
| Equity capital |
Rs. 17.97 crore; FV Rs. 2 |
| 52 week high/low |
Rs. 530 / Rs. 208 |
| CMP |
Rs. 494.15 |
| Market Capitalisation |
Rs. 4440.21 crore |
| Recommendation |
Buy at declines |
KEI INDUSTRIES
Headquartered in New Delhi, KEI Industries offers an extensive range of cabling
solutions. It manufactures and markets Extra-High Voltage (EHV), Medium
Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) power cables, and serves
both retail and institutional segments. During the last halfcentury, it has emerged as
a onestop shop for products and services,
with its growing presence in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC)
services domain
further strengthening its leadership
position. Prospects are bullish.
Consider:
-
The company currently
operates through five manufacturing facilities strategically located in
the northern and western parts of
the country — Bhiwadi, Chopanki,
Pathrediare in Rajasthan, and Rakholi and Chinchpada
(Silvassa) in Dadra & Nagar Haveli — so as to serve institutional clients
efficiently across the country as well as to
be closer to markets. Over five decades of experience in
the cable industry have enabled the company to build a
diverse market presence with significant revenue coming
from exports, institutional and retail segments. The revenue generated under
the retail, institutional and export
segments was Rs 1,092.22 crore (around 30% of sales),
Rs 1,921.66 crore (around 52% of sales) and Rs 650.50
crore (around 18% of sales) respectively in the nine months
ended Dec 31, 2019.
-
The retail segment comprises house wires, winding and flexible wires, LT power
cables and HT cables.
KEI has been expanding its distribution network to increase
its retail sales. Its dealer and distributor base as of Dec 31,
2019 stand at 1,602, up from 1,450 as of March 31, 2019
and 1,284 as of March 2018. Of the 1,602 authorized dealers and distributors,
about 548 are from North India, 329
from South India, 376 from East India and 349 from West
India. The institutional business segment, which accounts
for a majority of its revenue as of March 2019, comprises
EHV cables, EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) business, LT power
cables
and HT cables. The company over
the years has developed a strong
relationship with reputed public
and private sector customers such
as Power Grid Corporation of India, L&T and Bharat Heavy
Electricals. The export business
also comprises LT power cables,
HT cables and EHV cables, with
a continued focus on the oil & gas
and other infrastructure-focused
sectors. The company also manufactures stainless steel wires and provides EPC
services
within the export business segment
Hit hard by the pandemic in the first half of the current
fiscal, the company is on the revival path. It has seen strong
business revival in Q3 aided by higher demand. The company has also seen improved
margins due to higher utilisation
and cost control. The cables business which accounts for
75 percent of revenues has seen its quarterly revenues reach
pre-Covid levels. While the engineering business is moving
slowly, opportunities in the segment are opening up because
of the government’s focus on infrastructure. The company
has an order book of close to Rs 2,611 crore, which is about
50 per cent of the annual consolidated revenue. The management expects to end FY 2021
with flat or marginally lower
sales, which will be commendable considering the lockdown
due to Covid. On enhanced equity post the QIP, we expect
the company to register a standalone EPS of Rs 36.4 for
FY21 and Rs 42.5 for FY22. The scrip trades at Rs 495,
which discounts the projected FY21 EPS around
9.9 times. The
company’s foray into
FMEG (fast moving electrical goods) will give a
further boost to its valuation.
CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)
|
Year
|
Net Sales
|
Net Profit
|
EPS (Rs.)
|
Div (%)
|
BV (%)
|
RONW (%)
|
|
2018-19
|
4226.96
|
181.87
|
20.3
|
60.00
|
98.69
|
28.67
|
|
2019-20
|
5073.35
|
271.23
|
30.3
|
75.00
|
127.49
|
NA
|
|
2020-21(E)
|
4468.86
|
219.31
|
24.5
|
65.00
|
168.9
|
29.21
|
|
2021-22(E)
|
5001.15
|
286.91
|
32.1
|
70.00
|
203.8
|
29.56
|
Recovering from Covid slump
| BSE ticker code |
500292 |
| NSE ticker code |
HEIDELBERG |
| Major activity |
Cement |
| Managing Director |
Jamshed Naval Cooper |
| Equity capital |
Rs. 226.62 crore; FV Rs. 10 |
| 52 week high/low |
Rs. 245 / Rs 120 |
| CMP |
Rs. 230 |
| Market Capitalisation |
Rs. 5212.10 crore |
| Recommendation |
Buy at declines |
HEIDELBERG CEMENT INDIA
Heidelberg Cement India, a 69.4% subsidiary of
the Heidelberg Cement group, was born in 2009 after the
German cement major acquired Indorama Cement and
Mysore Cement and merged them into one with a capacity of
3 million tonnes per annum. Soon the company undertook a
brownfield capacity expansion in central India to raise the
capacity to 5.4 mtpa. Today, the
company has two integrated plants
at Imlai in Damoh (Madhya
Pradesh) and Jhansi (Uttar
Pradesh), and one grinding unit at
Ammasandra (Karnataka). The
company is on the growth path.
Consider:
-
The German group acquired a major stake in leading global cement company
Italcementi
SPA and now has a presence in
more than 60 countries. As
Italcementi has a presence in India through its 100% subsidiary, Zuari Cement,
the Heidleberg group now has two cement companies (HCI and Zuari), one catering
to central India and the other mainly to south India. Heidelberg Cement
India (HCI) has the advantage of technical support from its
giant parent.
-
On account of good demand for the company’s
cement in central India, both plants of HCI are working at
over 90%. With an aim to achieve better operational efficiency and increase
productivity, the company is now
debottlenecking its cement grinding capacities in Imlai and
Jhansi at a total investment Rs 20.7 crore, which is being
met through internal accruals. This will raise the grinding
capacity to 6.26 mtpa. It is also exploring inorganic expansion and is scouting
for a limestone mine to augment its
existing limestone mine.
-
The demand for cement, which had suffered a setback in much of fiscal 2020 on
account of macro weakness, has started improving from the last quarter of 2020.
Improvement in demand momentum across the country is likely to
sustained in the coming months, as the government has started
giving a push to infrastructure in order to revive a sagging
economy that was further ravaged by Covid.
-
Crude prices have corrected massively in the last
few months on account of the Covid
scare. This decline in crude prices is
likely to drive power and fuel costs
down, and savings can flow in from
the increased proportion of power
generation through waste heat recovery, optimisation of lead distance
and product mix.
-
The company reported
a 32% yoy decline in volume at
0.86mn mt. It lost almost the entire
production in April due to the
lockdown. The central and eastern
regions in India witnessed substantial improvement in demand
and were expected to report better volume growth compared
to other regions. However, the company’s volume growth
seems lower considering the regional volume trends. Realization growth is at
1.7% qoq.
-
Prospects for the company are expected to improve
in the coming months. The cement sector is an indirect beneficiary of higher
government spending towards infrastructure, highways, housing and rural
development. Overall, next
year’s demand is likely to be better than the current year, but
due to lower capacity utilization growth may not be much.
Increased cost savings may continue to support higher profitability.
-
The company has no major plan for capex except
maintenance capex, which will be Rs. 0.5 bn for FY21. The
greenfield plant in the western region has been kept on hold
due to the lockdown and lower availability of manpower in
government offices.
For FY 2021, the management expects an uncertain outlook due to Covid,
and hopes to optimise operational and
capital expenditure. On an equity of Rs
226.62 crore and face value of Rs 10 per
share, EPS for FY21 works out to Rs 10.9.
The scrip trades at Rs 230. P/E on the FY
21 estimated EPS works out to 17.
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)
|
Year
|
Net Series
|
Net Profit
|
EPS (Rs.)
|
Div (%)
|
BV (%)
|
RONW (%)
|
|
2017-18
|
1889.47
|
133.18
|
5.9
|
25.00
|
46.17
|
13.23
|
|
2018-19
|
2133.35
|
220.66
|
9.7
|
45.00
|
51.7
|
19.90
|
|
2019-20
|
2169.62
|
268.06
|
11.8
|
60.00
|
58.0
|
NA
|
|
2020-21(E)
|
2321.89
|
279.89
|
12.4
|
40.00
|
66.4
|
17.86
|
|
2021-22(E)
|
2542.24
|
311.09
|
13.7
|
60.00
|
74.1
|
18.41
|