The India-US trade deal crafted by US President Donald Trump has been enthusiastically welcomed as a ‘landmark deal’ by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his cabinet colleagues, Foreign Minister S Jaishanker and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. But quite a few commentators are labelling it a ‘humiliating setback’ for the country, even calling it a ‘body blow’ to the Indian republic.

Mr Goyal is jubilant over the US slashing the tariff on Indian exports from 50 per cent to 18 per cent at a time when Mr Trump has imposed a 2 per cent higher impost on exports from our competitors – Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh. This is small cheer and does not give any great advantage to India. On the other hand, India has agreed to eliminate or reduce import duties on a variety of US industrial and agricultural products.

Notwithstanding the small tariff advantage vis-a-vis Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh, the fact remains that the US import tariff on Indian exports was around 4 per cent in preTrump days – 4 per cent lower than the current deal. Besides, the tariff then on US goods entering India was substantially higher — which has been now been slashed to zero or thereabouts. The question that comes to mind is: What is the benefit to India? And who has come out a bigger beneficiary of these tariff changes – India or the US?

Our Commerce Minister feels the deal has served the interests of Indian farmers and dairy producers. According to him, the government has secured a tariff structure that protects the country’s most sensitive food sectors while unlocking wider export opportunities for Indian manufacturers, tech producers and labour-intensive industries. He says India maintains full protection of essential food and commodity lines that support millions of farmers, like wheat, rice, maize, soyabean, oilseeds, poultry, ethanol, tobacco and dairy. According to Mr Goyal, agriculture, dairy, spices and tea remained untouched.

But Mr Trump’s take is quite different –he has announced to his own constituents that under the trade deal a vast Indian agricultural market has been opened up for American farm exporters. True to form, he has also announced that if he is not satisfied with the outcome of the deal, he will change its provisions. Little wonder then that one commentator wittily suggested that when Mr Goyal said he had stood firm on protecting Indian farmers, he should have added ‘For Now’.

Given Mr Trump’s barnstorming ways, no one should think that he is done with the matter. He is quite likely to wield the tariff axe again for future aims. It is not surprising therefore that the trade pact has sparked a heated political debate in India with opposition parties questioning its impact on Indian farmers – opposition leader Rahul Congress has likened it to ‘cavng in to US pressure’ — even as the government insists that it has safeguarded domestic interests.

A noted commentator on economic issues believes that the India-US trade deal is a humiliating cave-in for us. In the name of a trade deal, India has been armtwisted into giving up its sovereign right to buy crude oil from wherever it chooses. The yet-to-be-sealed deal prohibits India from buying cheaper oil from Russia. Now, we may have to buy oil from the US or another source suggested by the US – which could cost India $12 per barrel more.

And there continues to be the spectre of Mr Trump tossing out the current trade deal, as he has done with South Korea recently. In that event, it will be back to a painful square one for our export industry.